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.In and of itself there wasnothing surprising about incumbent party losses in a mid-term election,but other influences were at work that made Johnson think he might notwin again.The inner-city riots had produced a backlash against his supportof minority programs that seemed unlikely to soften in the next two years.Having assumed that the South would shift toward the Republicans in328 :: lyndon b.johnsonresponse to the civil rights and voting rights acts, Johnson now saw north­ern blue-collar whites also turning against him and the Democrats.In deciding whether to run, Johnson also considered the possibility thatRobert Kennedy might take the nomination from him.In July 1966, BillMoyers privately reported from New York that Bobby s Senate staff was pro­moting the tale that Johnson would settle the Vietnam War by 1968 andthen retire for health reasons.They were urging people  to get on theKennedy bandwagon.now. In November, Marvin Watson told LBJ ofreports that Kennedy was discouraging party donors from giving money toLBJ and suggested instead that donations go to the New York State Demo­cratic committee.The more Johnson thought about running, the more hesitant hebecame.True, by the beginning of May his approval rating was up to 48percent, and he beat Kennedy in a trial heat by 49 percent to 37 percent.But only 43 percent approved of his handling of Vietnam, and a straw pollagainst Romney in June showed him trailing by three points.More important, health concerns made him reluctant to serve anotherfour years.In January 1965, he had been rushed to the hospital with chestpains, which turned out to be a serious respiratory infection causing a tem­perature of 104.4 degrees.In October, he had surgery to remove his gallbladder and a kidney stone.Given his medical history, the surgery raisedconcerns about a cardiac episode.There were also fears that he might havepancreatic cancer.Though neither of these problems occurred, his recov­ery from the surgery was more painful and slower than anticipated.In addi­tion, when attempts to defuse rumors that he had had a heart attack byshowing his surgical scar to reporters provoked attacks on his crudeness, hebecame depressed and discussed resigning.In late December, he returnedto the hospital for throat surgery on a benign polyp and a repair on his gallbladder incision, which had never fully healed.In 1967 he had a secret actuarial study prepared on his life expectancy.He wished an assessment of his own belief that his family history made itunlikely that he d survive a second term. The American people hadenough of Presidents dying in office, he said.If health worries weren t enough to drive Johnson out of the race, addi­tional bad news in the summer of 1967 brought him closer to such a deci­sion.Senator Daniel Inouye of Hawaii told an LBJ aide that if the Repub­licans had a chief of staff with  the power and the authority to dream upand impose upon the President the most burdensome problems the mindof man is capable of conceiving, the President would not have any moreLast Hurrahs :: 329problems cast upon him than he now has. Poll numbers were depressing:Seven out of ten Republicans thought their chances in 1968 were good andfour out of ten Democrats agreed.Johnson s job rating was down to 39 per­cent favorable, the lowest since he had taken office.The war had become an unshakable burden.September polls showedJohnson s approval and disapproval ratings holding steady at 40 percent and48 percent, respectively.The numbers on Vietnam were worse, with only28 percent positive and 57 percent negative.In September, Johnson reached a tentative decision not to run again.During an eight-hour conversation at his ranch on September 8 with TexasGovernor John Connally, Congressman Jake Pickle, and Lady Bird, LBJreviewed his options.Connally told him he didn t think he could getreelected.Johnson himself saw withdrawal as an opportunity to make peacewithout abandoning Vietnam.Pickle agreed with the President s reasoning,but worried that Johnson s retirement would make it difficult for Democratsto hold their congressional seats.Lady Bird expressed fears that bad healthmight overtake him in another term: something not incapacitating butenough to put a distinct limit on his capacity  to be the sort of a Presidenthe wanted to be.a physical or mental incapacitation would be unbear­ably painful for him to recognize, and for me to watch, she believed.Johnson considered announcing his retirement at a Democratic partydinner in October or at a political function in December.Connally advisedan early declaration, which would leave Johnson free to work exclusivelyon national problems, including Vietnam, and give other potential candi­dates a chance to prepare their campaigns.But Johnson did nothing inOctober, and though he asked George Christian and Connally to write awithdrawal statement for December, he still held back from acting.At the same time he made plans to retire, he encouraged discussionsabout a 1968 campaign.In the fall of 1967, he gave Larry O Brien, JohnRoche, Jim Rowe, and Marvin Watson reason to think he would run again.At the end of September, O Brien completed a forty-four-page campaignstrategy paper describing how to return LBJ to the presidency [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]

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